The Strategic and Security Implications of Including Japan
The Australian-American-UK trilateral defence strategy, known as AUKUS, is at a pivotal juncture, with discussions of potentially incorporating Japan as a fourth member. This expansion aims to enhance critical technology defences and cyber capabilities across the Indo-Pacific region. However, several challenges loom over this ambitious proposal, especially with the political landscape in the United States and the inherent complexities of integrating new partners.
AUKUS was established in 2021 with a primary focus on countering China's growing influence in the Pacific. The initial "pillar" of the pact involves cooperation to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, a significant strategic move. The possibility of other countries joining a second pillar to develop high-tech weaponry and cyber defences has been floated, but it faces substantial hurdles.
Diplomatic and Legislative Challenges
Paul Myler, deputy head of mission at Australia's embassy in Washington, highlighted the intricacies of expanding AUKUS. "Adding additional partners to that process is complicated," Myler remarked during an event hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
He emphasised that while Japan has shown political will and alignment in defence capabilities, integrating them into AUKUS is not straightforward. "AUKUS is reaching out to Japan, to find some collaboration that we can do out there," he clarified, indicating that a formal inclusion might not be imminent.
One significant barrier is the U.S. Congress's stance on expanding the pact. Myler pointed out the nearly inconceivable achievement of reforming U.S. export control restrictions over 40 years, stressing that adding new partners could complicate this delicate balance. "I don't think Congress would consider it (AUKUS) open for expansion, but AUKUS partners can certainly reach out and do collaboration out there," he said.
Japan's Potential Contributions and Risks
Japan's technological advancements and strategic positioning could be a boon for the AUKUS alliance. Their early warning systems across the shared China seas and insights into nuclear systems could significantly bolster the alliance's defensive and offensive capabilities. Moreover, Japan's involvement could accelerate the development of critical technology defences, benefiting not just Australia but the entire Indo-Pacific alliance.
However, concerns about Japan's cyber and information security vulnerabilities persist. Experts caution that integrating Japan without addressing these vulnerabilities could expose the alliance to significant risks. Additionally, strict U.S. restrictions on sharing technology pose another hurdle. Both Canberra and London worry that expanding membership too quickly could bog down the progress AUKUS has made.
Looking Ahead
The U.S. State Department's recent plan to reduce licensing requirements for transferring military gear and sensitive technology among AUKUS partners is a step forward. The expected finalisation of trade exemptions for AUKUS within the next 120 days marks a critical development. Yet, the broader question of Japan's formal inclusion remains unresolved.
In the backdrop of these discussions, the potential shift in the U.S. political landscape adds another layer of uncertainty. With upcoming elections and the possibility of a change from a Democratic to a Republican administration, the political will to expand AUKUS could wane.
The current perspective is that while the idea of Japan joining AUKUS holds strategic promise, it is fraught with diplomatic, legislative, and security challenges. The future of AUKUS expansion will depend on careful navigation of these complexities and the evolving political dynamics in the U.S. and beyond.
