China's Coercive Role in the Indo-Pacific: Insights from the 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy
On October 27, 2022, the U.S. Department of Defense released its unclassified National Defense Strategy (NDS), in line with President Biden's National Security Strategy. The NDS incorporates elements like the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the Missile Defense Review (MDR) to address a rapidly changing security environment that threatens to diminish America's ability to deter aggression globally.
According to the NDS, the most significant threat to U.S. national security comes from China (referred to as the PRC), particularly its attempts to reshape the Indo-Pacific region according to its authoritarian preferences. Russia is also identified as posing acute threats. These challenges are compounded by factors like climate change, which will put additional pressure on the U.S. military and its supporting systems.
The report underscores China's coercive and aggressive actions, particularly its attempts to undermine U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. China's rising military and economic capabilities are seen as tools it uses to intimidate neighbouring countries. Additionally, China's confrontational stance towards Taiwan is highlighted as a destabilising factor that risks miscalculation and threatens peace in the Taiwan Strait. This behaviour is noted as part of a larger pattern that extends to the East and South China Seas and the Line of Actual Control.
AUKUS Partnership Bolsters Indo-Pacific Security, But Raises New Questions
This week, Mara Karlin, who is performing the duties of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, asserted in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that the AUKUS partnership among the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia is "a critical part of how [Indo-Pacific security] goals will be achieved."
Her testimony serves as a reaffirmation of the strategic alliance that was first announced in September 2021. But while the partnership undoubtedly serves American interests in the Indo-Pacific, it also opens up a Pandora's box of diplomatic, military, and ethical questions.
Karlin's testimony emphasised that Australia has shown an unwavering commitment to procuring "conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines." She proclaimed, "We are moving out swiftly," referring to naval nuclear propulsion cooperation among the AUKUS countries.
In a rather overt show of progress, Karlin pointed out that three Australian officers have graduated from U.S. nuclear power school, and a Virginia-class attack submarine, the USS North Carolina, has already made its first port visit to Australia.
Advancing Military Technology, Expanding Diplomacy
The AUKUS alliance is not merely about naval assets. Karlin made it a point to highlight the broader scope of the partnership.
"In April, under the auspices of the Artificial Intelligence Working Group, we trilaterally demonstrated the joint deployment of artificial intelligence-enabled assets in a collaborative swarm to detect and track military targets in real time" Mara Karlin, American foreign policy and defense advisor.
This suggests that the partnership is committed to leveraging new and advanced technologies to tackle the complexities of modern warfare.
Moreover, Karlin also touched on the integral role that the State and Commerce departments play in the trilateral relationship. However, she did not miss the opportunity to remind Congress of its role, particularly its power to authorise the sale of Virginia-class submarines to Australia, among other legislative responsibilities. "We cannot implement AUKUS without your critical support in all of these areas," she argued.
Strategic Advantage or a Double-Edged Sword?
Karlin concluded her testimony by highlighting the unique strength of America's network of alliances and partnerships. "The U.S. network of alliances and partnerships is a strategic advantage that competitors cannot match," she claimed.
While this may be true, the AUKUS partnership is not without its criticisms and concerns. The commitment to advanced military technologies, particularly nuclear propulsion, sets a high bar for nonproliferation standards. Furthermore, the partnership has already upset existing alliances and power dynamics, particularly with France, which felt sidelined by the announcement of the AUKUS alliance.
Editors Thoughts: Beyond Military Might
So, while Mara Karlin's testimony seems to paint a positive picture of the AUKUS partnership as a cornerstone for Indo-Pacific security and a broader U.S. strategy, the alliance is fraught with challenges that must not be overlooked. Like any strategy aimed at deterring a rising competitor—in this case, China—the AUKUS alliance must navigate a fine line between deterrence and provocation. It's a balancing act that calls for more than just advanced technology and military might; it also requires diplomatic finesse and global cooperation.
Moreover, the AUKUS alliance raises the risk of destabilising the Pacific region and creating political, economic, and social friction and disharmony among trading partners across ASEAN and South Pacific neighbours. The partnership's focus on advanced military capabilities, particularly nuclear propulsion, could set off alarm bells among countries in the region that are already wary of escalating arms races. This could consequently erode the trust and collaboration that underpin regional trade and social cohesion.
Thus, the real question is not just about the effectiveness of the AUKUS alliance in achieving its stated objectives, but whether it can do so without unsettling a complex and fragile international arena already rife with geopolitical tensions.
