Strategic Analysis on China's Power Projection
Since the 1990s, China's ascent in global prominence has been anchored in its substantial economic growth and burgeoning military prowess. Initial perceptions downplayed China's capability to harness “soft” and “sharp power” through media and global campaigns. Yet, contemporary evaluations challenge this narrative.
From the late 2000s, particularly under Xi Jinping's tenure post-2013, China's efforts to project influence have expanded beyond Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Australia to include regions like Africa, Europe, and the Americas, homing in on the U.S.
In the last decade, China's sharp power, characterised by its capacity to disrupt foreign governance via misinformation, coercion, and conflict, has escalated. This is evident in the heightened media focus on Taiwan, pushing Western allies to re-evaluate their engagement strategies, hinting at looming tensions and potential confrontations.
Further highlighting this strategic media deployment is the recent documentary, "Chasing Dreams." More than a showcase of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) intentions towards Taiwan, it's a testament to Beijing's adeptness at blending media narratives with economic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to fortify its position in Southeast Asia. This sophisticated media manoeuvre, combined with the economic allure of the BRI, seeks to counteract U.S. dominance, drawing on rising nationalistic fervour.
The "Joint Sword" exercises, featured in the documentary, are precise simulations aimed at Taiwan. Timed with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's U.S. visit, it magnifies China's aptitude for synergizing media and military displays for strategic messaging.
"The current and potential future impact of the CCP’s soft power tactics should not be underestimated, be it in terms of press freedom, economics, or national security."
-Sarah Cook, Freedom House
In this photo provided by China’s Xinhua News Agency, a People's Liberation Army member looks through binoculars during military exercises as Taiwan’s frigate Lan Yang is seen at the rear, on Friday, Aug. 5, 2022. China is holding drills in waters around Taiwan in response to a recent visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (Lin Jian/Xinhua via AP)
Among the more dramatic parts of the program are pledges by PLA soldiers from various divisions to relinquish life in a potential attack on Taiwan.
China's media blitz, however, isn't merely a transient public relations endeavour. It's emblematic of Beijing's systematic attempt to both reinforce domestic solidarity and subtly dissuade adversarial foreign entities. This sophisticated media initiative finds its echo in “Beijing's Global Media Offensive” by Joshua Kurlantzick. The work underscores China's deliberate strides towards establishing itself as a global media, information, and influence behemoth. Kurlantzick delves into Beijing's ambitions to reshape internal politics, media narratives, and informational environments, targeting not just the U.S. and East Asia, but extending its reach into Europe and other global theatres.
In a testament to its expansive influence ambitions, Beijing has emerged as the paramount investor in overseas influence operations. Its strategic outreach envelops its immediate geographical realm, including Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, and stretches into Europe and broader horizons. Amplifying this is China's masterful penetration into the telecommunications sector, social platforms, and global TV media networks. Ingeniously intertwining propaganda with consumer electronics and digital platforms, Beijing ensures its narratives find resonance across the spectrum of global communication, embedding its perspectives into the very fabric of international discourse.
Belt and Road: China's Geopolitical Leverage
This ambition is also evident in China's overseas investments. Beyond its immediate neighbours, Beijing's influence extends to the telecommunications sector, social platforms, and global TV media networks. By intricately weaving propaganda into digital and consumer platforms, China is embedding its narratives into global communication channels.
Beyond the media, China's multidimensional strategy includes socio-economic, political, and military instruments. Central to this is the BRI, a government initiative that leverages infrastructure investments to create economic dependencies and extend China's geopolitical influence. For many Southeast Asian countries, the BRI is a double-edged sword: while offering tangible economic benefits, it also tacitly requires political alignment with Beijing. This expectation becomes even more pronounced when juxtaposed against China's media campaigns that constantly reiterate its regional dominance.
Yet, China's aspirations don't end in the Southeast Asian theatre. The "Made in China 2025" blueprint unveiled in 2015 articulates Beijing's ambitions to be a global leader in manufacturing, technology, and science by 2050. In domains such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum information science, and sustainable energy, China is already exhibiting formidable capabilities.
Recognizing the strategic implications of China's assertiveness, the AUKUS trilateral security pact was formed in 2021 between Australia, the UK, and the U.S. Central to this alliance is the provision of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, aimed at counterbalancing China's maritime dominance in the Pacific. AUKUS is more than a defence pact; it embodies a collective western resolve to technologically counter China's advancements. Within its strategic framework, there is an emphasis on enhancing technological collaboration, with initiatives like Pillar Two focusing on boosting shared capabilities and ensuring interoperability.
By May 2023, the UK's AUKUS technological exposition highlighted the pact's intent by unveiling state-of-the-art AI-driven mechanisms. This collaborative approach underscores AUKUS's commitment to integrating advanced tech paradigms within defence strategies.
However, an analysis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in 2023 suggested a concerning trend. China seems to have surpassed the U.S. and its allies in the majority of critical technologies related to AUKUS's Pillar Two. Beijing's integrated strategies have significantly enhanced its technological capacity across sectors, offering it a strategic advantage in the evolving global landscape.
It is a delicate balance to strike between maintaining global trade, regional stability against the growing geopolitical competition. China's combination of media operations, technological advancements, and strategic economic initiatives like the BRI is reshaping the Pacific's strategic landscape. While Beijing's assertive manoeuvres have occasionally detracted from its popularity in the region, its combined media and economic outreach presents a complex challenge. For balancing powers, especially those under the AUKUS umbrella, understanding the intertwined nature of China's strategies is essential. As the Pacific theatre evolves, continuous diplomacy and strategic alliances become pivotal in maintaining a balanced regional power equilibrium.
