The debate between decoupling from China or implementing policies aimed at curbing its rise to superpower status is multifaceted and complex. Navigating the economic and geopolitical factors that shape China's role in the global supply chain, its regional influence, and the potential consequences of economic sanctions and retaliatory actions requires a comprehensive understanding of the global landscape. A more nuanced approach to these issues is essential for Western nations to develop effective strategies in response to China's growing power and influence.
China's influence has extended beyond its political sphere, as it has become an indispensable player in international supply chains and Asian governments (Dollar, 2020). The country's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its long-term strategic planning have positioned it as a crucial trading partner to most Pacific nations. Navigating the complexities and political challenges of China's ambitions is increasingly difficult, but understanding its role is essential for promoting peace, prosperity, and protecting the Pacific region (Li, 2022).
BRI: China's Ambitious Infrastructure Project a resilient strategic foreign policy build allies and ring of dependencies with Beijing
China's BRI, sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects ever conceived. Launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the project was initially aimed at linking East Asia and Europe through physical infrastructure. Over the past decade, it has expanded to Africa, Oceania, and Latin America, significantly broadening China's economic and political influence.
President Xi stated in 2017 “China will actively promote international co-operation through the Belt and Road Initiative. In doing so, we hope to achieve policy, infrastructure, trade, financial, and people-to-people connectivity and thus build a new platform for international co-operation to create new drivers of shared development”
Analysts have expressed concern over the project as an unsettling extension of China's rising power. The escalating costs of many BRI projects have led to opposition in some countries, while the United States and other nations in Asia view it as a potential Trojan horse for China-led regional development and military expansion (Nye, 2015).
China has both geopolitical and economic motivations behind BRI. President Xi Jinping envisions a more assertive China, with BRI serving as a countermeasure against the US's "pivot to Asia" (Li, 2022). Additionally, China seeks to promote economic development in its historically neglected western regions and secure long-term energy supplies from Central Asia and the Middle East.
Beijing could also potentially seek geopolitical leverage over BRI countries. A 2021 study found that China's debt financing contracts with foreign governments often contain clauses that restrict restructuring and allow China to demand repayment at any time, giving Beijing the ability to use funding as a tool to enforce its interests (Li, 2022).
Strategic Confrontation: Balancing Cooperation and Competition
The era of strategic confrontation between China and the U.S. is alarming, with the collapse of trust and fundamental differences defining their relationship (Allison, 2017). To promote peace, prosperity, and protect the Pacific region, nations must balance cooperation and competition while avoiding military conflict (Ikenberry, 2018). Achieving the greatest possible transparency over goals and plans is crucial in managing the risks inherent in this competition.
As former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd stated in a recent interview, "The key challenge for the Biden administration is to find a way to manage strategic competition with China without descending into strategic conflict" (Rudd, 2021).
The Strategic Goals of Allied Nations: Assessing China's Influence
The strategic goals of allied nations to restrain China due to its political and global prominence may require further study. China's web of commercial, economic, social, and military influence has been in the making for decades, and restraining its magnitude and power in the Pacific region may not be a straightforward process (Campbell & Ratner, 2018). China's priority is to pursue political, economic, and sovereign power interests in the Asia region on its terms.
The asset of time has allowed China to develop a long-term strategy that has shifted the global power dynamic. By recognising the multifaceted nature of China's influence, the West can reassess its strategic goals and find a path toward coexistence and cooperation.
Decoupling vs. Engagement: The Complex Debate
The debate surrounding whether to decouple from China or implement policies to curb its ascent to superpower status is multifaceted and intricate. To successfully navigate the economic and geopolitical factors influencing China's role in the global supply chain, regional dominance, and potential outcomes of economic sanctions or retaliatory measures, Western nations must adopt a comprehensive understanding of the global landscape. A more nuanced approach is essential for devising effective strategies in response to China's expanding power and influence.
Final Thoughts: Navigating the Dynamic Landscape of Global Power in the New Century
As China continues to exert its influence, it is crucial for the West to acknowledge the multifaceted nature of China's power, which spans economic, social, and military domains. In adapting to this changing landscape, nations must reassess their strategic goals and draw lessons from the contrasts between democratic and authoritarian approaches to power. By doing so, the international community can forge a path towards coexistence and cooperation, ensuring global stability in an era marked by uncertainty and tensions.
The asset of time has been China's most potent weapon, enabling the nation to build a strategy that has shifted the global power dynamic. As the international community confronts this new reality, it is imperative for Western nations to reassess their strategic priorities, embrace a more nuanced understanding of China's multifaceted power, and seek opportunities for cooperation and coexistence. In doing so, they can contribute to global stability in a world increasingly defined by complexity and volatility.
