How the U.S. and Allies are Harnessing AI Amid Growing Threats
Summary
- Gen. Nakasone underscores AI's critical role in defence against threats like China; Australia aligns with the U.S., emphasising AI's naval warfare transformation through innovations like the Ghost Shark.
- AI's application in targeting specific demographics raises ethical concerns; U.S. and China's AI drone advancements highlight the urgency for international standards in AI warfare.
When Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, took the podium at the AFCEA TechNet Cyber conference in Baltimore on May 2, 2023, the room was filled with anticipation. AI's growing integration into defence systems and the evolving cybersecurity landscape became the focal point of discussions.
The establishment of an artificial intelligence security centre by the National Security Agency (NSA) marks a pivotal step in ensuring that the U.S. maintains its edge in AI. While the U.S. currently holds an AI advantage, it is no time for complacency, especially in the face of threats from powerful adversaries such as China and Russia. Nakasone's caution against underestimating the threat from Beijing emphasises the geopolitical implications of AI-led warfare.
Recent cyber-operations by China have shown an increased focus on targeting U.S. and allied institutions, which may hint at a larger strategy of disrupting military communications. While Nakasone assured that AI aids the defence system, he also emphasised the importance of human judgement. "Artificial intelligence assists, but decisions remain human," he stressed.
Nakasone’s warning against Beijing's potential threat, while significant, points to a larger issue: Is the U.S. doing enough to maintain its AI advantage, or just enough to keep pace?
In the Pacific, the AI arms race is palpable. Australia, under the AUKUS initiative and in alignment with the U.S., is drastically reshaping its military preparedness. While the massive investment in nuclear-powered attack submarines grabs headlines, it's the quick and cost-effective adoption of AI-driven unmanned submarines, like the Ghost Shark, that reveals the future of naval warfare.
Traditional submarine blueprints, which prioritise the safety and wellbeing of onboard crew, inevitably add to the financial and logistical challenges of naval operations. However, the paradigm shifts when you remove human presence. As emphasised by Shane Arnott of defence contractor Anduril, sans human crew, submarine designs become more streamlined, leading to cost-effective and expedited production.
Keeping pace with US defence advancements, in August, the Defence Minister, the Hon Richard Marles MP, inaugurated a cutting-edge supercomputing facility at the Defence Science and Technology Group's Edinburgh Defence Precinct, located in South Australia.
“For much of the work done by our Defence scientists, data is critical.
“But even more important than the data itself, is the ability to rapidly and reliably analyse and process that data.
- Minister for Defence, the Hon Richard Marles
The incorporation of AI in combat is not confined solely to naval capacities. Both Russian and Ukrainian military forces are tapping into AI, advanced satellite imagery, and precision munitions. As highlighted by ex-Australian army major general Mick Ryan, the battlefield's landscape is shifting, with drones progressively taking the place of helicopters.
Moreover, AI's potential extends to targeting non-combatants. There have been alerts from the scientific community about the feasibility of AI-guided drone swarms singling out large populations, like all military-aged males in a specific locality or demographic. While innovations like the Ghost Shark submarine indicate a transformative approach to military tactics, they simultaneously raise concerns about warfare that could sideline human judgement and values.
So, at what point do we determine the balance between tactical efficacy and the potential for disproportionate harm?
“They could wipe out, say, all males between 12 and 60 in a city,” said computer scientist Stuart Russell in a BBC lecture on the role of AI in warfare broadcast in late 2021.
“Unlike nuclear weapons, they leave no radioactive crater, and they keep all the valuable physical assets intact,” added Russell, a professor of computer science at the University of California, Berkeley.
The U.S. and China have both explored the capabilities of AI-driven drone swarms. Previously, the U.S. military showcased footage of their troops undergoing training exercises with such drone formations. Another clip reveals testing of drone swarms at Fort Campbell, Tennessee, in the latter part of 2021, where an individual can be seen wearing video game-inspired goggles during the session.
For allies of the U.S., utilising cost-effective drone swarms could counterbalance China’s superiority in terms of missiles, naval vessels, and attack aircraft. This strategy may prove crucial if the U.S. decides to intervene in a potential conflict initiated by Beijing against Taiwan.
The augmentation of unmanned assets equipped with remote functions designed to operate from distant command centres using AI-based directives necessitates enhanced computational capacities. This surge in demand has accelerated the growth of AI development teams, leading to the fortification of cybersecurity measures. This encompasses both internal risk mitigation and safeguarding data, as well as incorporating AI into weaponry platforms.
U.S. and Allies: Treading on Thin Ice?
While the U.S. and its allies seem to recognize the potential of cost-effective AI weapons, their rapid integration into military strategy without a clear ethical framework is concerning. There's an urgent need for international dialogue on establishing standards and norms for AI-driven warfare.
The NSA's decision to invest in an AI security centre stems from the urgent need to safeguard AI models from external threats. Gen. Nakasone envisions the centre as a hub for AI best practices, guidelines, and risk frameworks, aimed not just at defence but also at ensuring that the U.S.' national security systems remain resilient and forward-looking.
The NSA's investment in an AI security centre underscores the growing importance of cybersecurity. But with this comes the enormous responsibility of ensuring these AI models remain impervious to manipulation and external threats. In an age where cyber-espionage and warfare are rampant, one breach could spell disaster.
The collaboration between NSA and various stakeholders, including U.S. industries, academia, national labs, and the Department of Defense, will be crucial in navigating the AI-driven future. As Nakasone passes the baton to Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh, the U.S. stands at a crucial juncture where the confluence of AI and cybersecurity will shape the trajectory of modern warfare and geopolitical dominance.
Collaboration or Collision: The Path Forward for AI in Warfare
Nakasone's vision for the NSA's AI security centre is commendable, but the U.S.' approach to AI in warfare requires collective thought and input. The collaboration with academia, industries, and defence partners is a start, but without establishing clear ethical guidelines and international standards, the U.S. and the world stand on the precipice of an unpredictable future.
