The escalating competition for advanced AI technology between American and Chinese tech sectors is prompting concerns regarding its potential impact on governance, legislation, and society. The progress made in 2023 alone has generated significant media attention and commercial interest from billionaires and Wall Street investors to legislators in Washington and Beijing. We explore the potential negative outcomes and foreign policy implications that may emerge if AI developers collaborate with unethical media leaders to promote political agendas.
The rapid acceleration and increasing sophistication of AI-assisted media publications could potentially sway public opinion, intensify political tensions in the Pacific, and contribute to the decline of foreign relations among the "Five Eyes" countries, Japan, and China. It is not unreasonable to envision the potential repercussions of AI-generated technology being utilised for nefarious political purposes, resulting in misinformation and foreign interference through deep fakes and bot-driven news publications. This could transform AI into digital and cyber weaponry for disseminating disinformation and waging cyber warfare.
In the context of the unstable and rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, these developments could escalate without proper diplomatic and industry "guardrails" and potentially be employed for military engagement. This may trigger a new wave of regional conflict, with the possibility of extending across the entire Pacific. Moreover, the same technology capable of generating university plans could, if misused, be repurposed as a cyber-technology weapon with boundless catastrophic consequences.
The rate of AI adoption we are currently experiencing has outpaced the expectations of many academics and governments. We provide an overview of the urgency needed to garner widespread understanding of the necessity for additional development and adoption treaties and legislation. This framework can help evaluate the capacity of generative AI to address complex issues, provided that international standards and bipartisan support are in place to establish a unified approach to concepts and definitions.
AI Race: The United States and China
The AI race between the United States and China is heating up, with significant developments on both sides. In the United States, Elon Musk has announced plans to create "TruthGPT," an AI that seeks the truth and the nature of the universe. Meanwhile, in China, Alibaba's Cloud unit unveiled its Tongyi Qianwen AI model on April 18th, which aims to be integrated across the company's various businesses.
On April 18th, Alibaba's Cloud unit unveiled its Tongyi Qianwen AI model, joining the ranks of Chinese tech companies launching their own AI offerings. This model, based on Alibaba's proprietary pre-trained model framework called Tongyi, will be integrated across various sectors, including enterprise communication, intelligent voice assistance, e-commerce, search, navigation, and entertainment. Alibaba's CEO Daniel Zhang emphasises the importance of generative AI and cloud computing for businesses to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.
The new AI model will be integrated across the company's businesses, spanning enterprise communication, intelligent voice assistance, e-commerce, search, navigation and entertainment, said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group and head of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence.
Chinese search engine giant Baidu has also unveiled its own ChatGPT-rival, Ernie Bot. This announcement follows similar AI development plans from artificial intelligence group SenseTime and internet security company Qihoo 360. The growing number of AI foundation models being developed by Chinese tech companies highlights the country's commitment to AI acceleration and its quest for AI supremacy.
"We are at a technological watershed moment driven by generative AI and cloud computing, and businesses across all sectors have started to embrace intelligence transformation to stay ahead of the game," Zhang said.
Government Involvement and Legislation
With rapid advancements in AI technology, governments worldwide are grappling with the need for new legislation to address potential ethical concerns and social implications. Following Alibaba's AI announcement, China's top cyberspace watchdog proposed a rule to regulate generative AI, which is now open for public consultation until May 10th. This move highlights the growing importance of AI regulation and the critical path for legislators to address potential risks and challenges.
As AI technologies advance, the potential pathways for their impact on population bias become increasingly complex. This complexity amplifies the challenges faced by governments and legislators, as they must navigate the implications of AI-generated content, disinformation, and cyber threats. The increasing prevalence of nation-sponsored artificial social content and fake news has the potential to saturate popular channels and distort public opinion, leading to instability and biased perspectives.
Possible Pathways and Impact on Population Bias
The race for AI supremacy between American and Chinese tech companies presents multiple possible pathways for Chat AI owners and developers. It will be legislators, academics and defence strategists that will find themselves contending with the immense challenge where culture is shaped by technology, and social media technology will be driven by synthetic intelligence.
The Pathways that will create unforeseeable Impact on Population Bias, will amplify the challenges ahead for governments and legislators, which in some cases are only steps away from greater national threats with disinformation and misdirection, escalating to hybrid threats with the unidentifiable amount of cyber threats, spy activity driven by artificial intelligence and nation sponsored artificial social content embedded generated with fake news and media airways that can saturate popular content channels.
The results of escalating dangers with the potential for unhinging the information weapons against society via a “news rogue“ producer that will harness untruth based on computational guidelines based on threat actors or Nations sponsored agenda to cause AI news will can lead to instability and population bias can become devastating and disharmonize National and foreign affairs to almost warlike levels
As companies develop AI systems with differing cultural and political biases, there is potential for these systems to shape public opinion and perpetuate biases. This makes it crucial for developers to consider ethical implications and promote transparency in their AI models to minimise the risk of perpetuating biases and misinformation.
Potentially Harmful Pathways and International Policy Ramifications
As the progress of AI hastens, anxiety increases regarding the potential harmful paths that could arise if Chat AI developers collaborate with dishonest media and political figures to advance political objectives. This utilisation would have no limits and could permit AI integration into defence and applied technologies, including both chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) and advanced tactical weaponry. The growing attraction to this novel intelligence for enhancing applied defence technologies bears the innate risks of a double-edged sword.
The possibility of "rogue news" creators exploiting falsehoods based on algorithmic principles or state-sponsored plans poses a considerable danger to societies across the globe. Under these circumstances, AI-supported media outlets might contribute to public prejudice and increased political strain in the Pacific region.
There is a concern that such systems will sway public sentiment and reinforce biases, potentially worsening the decline of foreign relations involving the Five Eyes nations, Japan, and China. Furthermore, AI-created deep fakes and bot-generated news content could evolve into digital and cyber armaments, resulting in a surge of disinformation and cyber conflicts. The spread of AI-driven news could lead to instability and heightened public prejudice, possibly damaging both domestic and international affairs while escalating tensions to perilous extremes.
A new era of Intelligence becoming central to weapon and defence policy
As recently as June 2022 Kathleen H Hicks Deputy Secretary of Defense , reiterated department of defence (DOD), new implementation of responsible AI (RAI), and setout frameworks towards strategy and processes for warfighting capabilities to support DOD AI ethical procedures.
Speaking virtually to the opening of the Defense Department's Artificial Intelligence Symposium and Tech Exchange, Hicks said DOD's operators must come to trust the outputs of AI systems; its commanders must come to trust the legal, ethical and moral foundations of explainable AI; and the American people must come to trust the values DOD has integrated into each of its applications.
The deputy secretary said she recently set forth a series of data decrees for DOD that will help the U.S. achieve the AI superiority it needs.
"We will ensure that DOD data is visible, accessible, understandable, linked, trustworthy, interoperable and secure. To do so, I have directed key initial steps to ensure the department treats data as a strategic asset," she said, adding these steps set DOD on a solid foundation — both ethically and organizationally,”said Hicks.
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), a division of the United States Department of Defense responsible for developing cutting-edge technologies for military use, is currently grappling with the challenge of creating trustworthy AI technology in various areas. These include next-generation AI programs for implementing advanced machine learning to enable facial recognition and autonomous vehicles in tactical warfare conditions, as well as high-performance AI for deployment in data centres and on the battlefield to accelerate strategic decision-making and assess possible military situations.
DARPA is also exploring the transition from second-wave machine learning techniques to those with contextual reasoning capabilities, allowing machines to evolve from mere tools to genuine partners. This shift, however, presents a technological challenge in ensuring reliable trustworthiness and treating machine learning as self-reasoning synthetic sentience, creating an unavoidable dilemma at the intersection of technical and ethical principles, especially when considering the potential for AI to influence tactical decisions in conflict situations.
In the Asia-Pacific region, major powers are embracing AI technology as a new resource to form part of military deterrence to enhance strategic capabilities, ensure national security, and maintain international stability. Both the United States and China are in a race for military technological modernization. China has committed to comprehensively modernise its military theory, organisation, personnel, and weaponry, aiming to achieve national defence and military modernization by 2035 and build a world-class army by mid-century.
In 2019, China's Information Office of the State Council highlighted that the Asia-Pacific region has become a focal point for major power competition, increasing uncertainty in regional security. The United States has reinforced its military alliances in the region and expanded its military presence and intervention, adding complexity to Asia-Pacific security. The deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system by the US in South Korea has significantly disrupted the regional strategic balance and harmed the strategic security interests of regional nations.
During the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on October 16, Xi Jinping discussed how China will expedite the development of a world-class military. The PLA aims to capitalise on advanced technology, focusing particularly on the use of unmanned weapons and artificial intelligence. To achieve this, China is committed to implementing Xi Jinping's thinking on strengthening the military, his military strategic concepts, and promoting the integration of mechanisation and informatization while accelerating the development of military intelligence.
AI Technology: The Next Wave of Military Deterrence in Pacific Superpowers
During the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping highlighted China's focus on "intelligent" (智能化) weapon systems based on artificial intelligence, mentioning the term three times. In July 2019, the Information Office of the State Council released the white paper "China's National Defense in the New Era," ", which reaffirms China's commitment to accelerating the construction of cyberspace forces, vigorously developing cybersecurity defence methods, and building a cyberspace defence force commensurate with China's international status and compatible with its ambitions as a cyber power.
Researchers from the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan have been examining the new cyber and space domains attracting attention from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), confirming China's military-civil fusion strategy aimed at leveraging science and technology for military purposes. China's cyber strategy is ambitious, with the Xi Jinping administration actively promoting the diffusion of information technology across Chinese society. The PLA is pursuing informatization in this context, recognizing the crucial role cyberspace plays in "informatized warfare."
China's cyber strategy has evolved alongside the PLA's informatization, which refers to the incorporation of information and communication technology (ICT) into the military and connecting military services. China believes it can surpass the U.S. military in this domain. At the 19th Party Congress in 2017, Xi insisted China would build a world-class military by the middle of this century.
The AI race is driving advancements in defence technologies, with both the United States and China seeking a competitive edge in industrial defence. The integration of AI intelligence into defence and tactical warfare may result in hybrid warfare designed by military strategists, aiming for military and geopolitical superiority in the Pacific and among NATO allies.
The potential involvement of Silicon Valley and Chinese AI companies in the development of AI systems for weapons and defence systems, including increased adoption in AI systems for cyber command activities, underscores the need for caution and regulation.
The Potential Role of AI in Pacific Conflicts and the Importance of Establishing Guardrails
During a speech in Washington in 2022, Foreign Minister Penny Wong made a plea to China for a joint strategic framework with the United States.
Without ethical guidelines and guardrails for the development and deployment of AI in defence technology, the risk of spiralling AI-driven conflicts increases.
In the PLA’s glossary of military terms, information operations are defined as: “integrating modes such as electronic warfare, cyber warfare, and psychological warfare to strike or counter an enemy to interfere with and damage the enemy’s information and information systems in cyberspace and electromagnetic space.
It is likely that technology warfare exercises would be used as the first stage in military readiness, using satellite, radio communication interference technology, unmanned navy vessels, and drones to initiate the first phase of armed threat strategies. The acceleration of strategic decision-making through predetermined systems and proximity signalling could inadvertently create a posture of war in the Pacific.
As recently as October 2022, China reaffirmed in its latest defence paper its commitment to uphold and Safeguard national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. Outlined as one their military objectives is the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the Yellow Sea to guard and defend, keep abreast of the surrounding maritime situation, organise joint maritime rights protection and law enforcement, properly handle sea and air situations, and resolutely respond to maritime security threats and infringements and provocations
Based on China’s strategy, experts suggest the initial stages of a gradual conflict could occur in the South China Sea region, with the potential for armed conflict resulting in various territorial justifications, such as China's efforts to reabsorb Taiwan and the US government's possible naval blockade.
This blockade would likely lead to a series of regional sub-conflicts across the South China Sea and adjacent territories.
Given this potential scenario, it is urgent to establish international treaties and agreements to disclose and agree on the interpretation of AI purpose in national defences and understand strategies to mitigate risks on inadvertent computerised intelligence managing or influencing military decision or activation of frontline assets. Without a security technology framework in place, the unchecked development of AI could contribute to a spiralling out-of-control threat from AI, machine learning, digital, and armed threats.
According to China’s defence whitepaper - it recognises the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation, it said “China actively and steadily handles military relations with the United States, and strives to make the relationship between the two militaries a stabiliser for the relationship between the two countries. Contribute to U.S. relations”
While the idea of competitive coexistence could work, it would require regular meetings between US and Chinese officials to discuss differences and clarify their respective red lines. However, Beijing is not keen on specific guardrails, as it fears that these would legitimise US behaviour it regards as provocative. It does not want to manage incidents in the South China Sea, for example; it just wants the US out of the area.
Given the collapse of trust between China and the US and the fundamental differences that now define that relationship, a framework to help manage the risks inherent in competition is the very best we can hope for
The AI race between the United States and China has significant implications for governments, legislation, and society. Although the notion of self-restraint is not often reciprocated by Beijing, diplomacy and reassurance must accompany deterrence and the hardening of our economies and societies if competition is to exist within peaceful bounds. It is crucial to establish international treaties and agreements to establish guardrails on AI development and integration into defence technologies to mitigate the potential for AI-driven conflict escalation.
As AI continues to advance rapidly, governments and legislators must address the potential risks and challenges posed by these technologies, ensuring that AI development serves the greater good rather than perpetuating bias, disinformation, and political tension.
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