Xi’s announcement regarding Wang Huning’s assignment is a strong indication that he is changing the rules of engagement. Wang will be tasked with creating “a theoretical unification strategy fit for the Xi era.” The author of the analysis suggests that a theoretical unification strategy will be the “yardstick with which to measure progress and to decide if a military operation is necessary.” In our opinion, however, if this “theoretical unification strategy” is successful, it will be much more than a yardstick. It will be the cover story that connects to a Chinese narrative that may have the power to take Taiwan without firing a shot.
The specific threat, the target of Xi’s narrative, is that his “Great Chinese Rejuvenation” requires all Han territory to be part of his historical interpretation of China, “The Middle Kingdom.” This feeds directly into what the Pentagon has long focused on – that is, defeating a Chinese invasion of the island.
The Chinese are not putting their tanks in a row and then deciding how to spin an invasion for the public. Rather, they are focusing first on public influence, the success or failure of which will determine whether or not an invasion is likely to be successful. They are engaged in Narrative Warfare. The kinetics are not out front but that does not diminish the severity of the threat.
A source familiar with the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party has pulled back the curtain on General Secretary Xi Jinping's leadership reshuffle last October.
Why were some leaders retained to serve another term, while others were shown the door?
On the Politburo Standing Committee, there were three members who were 67 years old, technically under the retirement age of 68. All three of them could have stayed, but only one did.
The ones who stepped down were No. 2, Premier Li Keqiang and No. 4 Wang Yang. Only No. 5 Wang Huning stayed on and was promoted in the new lineup. The source noted that this top leadership change hints at Xi's political strategy as he aims for a fourth term. "Wang Huning's mission is to lay the groundwork for Taiwan unification."
If Wang Huning was retained to handle the Taiwan file, this would be the result of the failure of the "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong.
After massive pro-democracy demonstrations shook Hong Kong in 2019, Beijing quickly enacted a national security law for the special administrative region. It spelled the end of a free Hong Kong.
Wang Yi also became director of the party's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, making him China's top-ranking diplomat.
Needless to say, the top diplomat reports to Xi on foreign affairs and security matters. But for policies involving Taiwan unification and relations with the U.S., Wang Huning is also in Wang Yi's reporting line.
This is because Wang Yi will become secretary general of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, where Wang Huning will serve as deputy director. Wang Yi once served as the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, China's government.
As a Politburo Standing Committee member, Wang Huning in one of China's top seven and has a much higher level of authority than Wang Yi, a Politburo member.
Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.
Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.
China's policies related to Taiwan will be spearheaded by these two Wangs.
Taiwan will hold an election next January to choose President Tsai Ing-wen's successor. Tsai will retire in May that year after serving two four-year terms. She cannot run for a third term.
China hopes to see the independence-leaning DPP ousted from power in 2024. But as relations between China and Taiwan are extremely tense, it is difficult to decide upon the timing of working out a new Taiwan unification strategy.
Xi has taken several steps to achieve his objective of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland. He has increased military spending and conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Strait to send a signal to Taiwan and the international community that China is prepared to use force to achieve reunification. He has also used economic and diplomatic pressure to isolate Taiwan and limit its international recognition.
At the same time, Xi has sought to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people by offering economic incentives and cultural exchanges. He has also sought to undermine support for Taiwanese independence by courting opposition parties and offering concessions on issues such as trade and investment.
Overall, Xi's political strategy is focused on achieving China's "great rejuvenation" and solidifying the CCP's control over the country. The reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is a key part of this strategy, and Xi has shown a willingness to use a range of tactics to achieve this goal.
