Leaked information from the Canberra defence community indicates that Australia is to buy two types of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact.
The AUKUS treaty, which is an agreement between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, signed in 2021, has been making global headlines due to Australia's decision to purchase two nuclear submarines from the United States. The announcement of this purchase has significant geopolitical implications for the region, as well as broader implications for global security.
The prime minister is expected to visit San Diego next week to announce Australia’s purchase of up to five Virginia-class submarines from the US, defying repeated warnings that American shipyards were stretched to full capacity and could not sell any boats to Australia.
Australian Strategic Policy Institute analysts have previously estimated the submarine project could cost as much as $170 billion. They are expected to arrive sometime in the 2030s and could require Australia to spend billions of dollars to expand America’s shipbuilding capacity, on top of paying for the submarines.
The Australian Federal Government signals a steadfast involvement in regional security strategies, cementing defence ties within the Indo-Pacific region. This comes after Albanese’s recent announcement of a “commitment to place India at the heart of Australia’s approach to the Indo-Pacific and beyond.” He argued that the security partnership between Australia and India was “of increasing strategic importance as we navigate the challenges of our region together.”
“For Australia, India is a top tier security partner,” he said. “The Indian Ocean is central to both countries’ security and prosperity.”
This coincides with The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald splashing their front pages earlier this week with the headlines such as “Australia ‘must prepare’ for threat of China war” and “Red alert: War risk exposed.”
The article received mixed reactions from all four corners of the country, it also drew the ire of the former Labor leader and former PM Paul Keating, who berated the media company, the journalists and the editors for running the content.
The Red Alert series on national security this week presented Peter Jennings, a former deputy secretary for strategy in the Defence Department, with the possibility of scenarios that the nation needed to prepare for a rapid escalation in the Pacific. He outlined that within 72 hours of a conflict breaking out over Taiwan, Chinese missile bombardments and devastating cyberattacks would begin pummeling Australia.
“Distance is no longer equivalent to safety from our strategic perspective,” he says. In the first three days of a war, he says Beijing would be tempted to target Australian military bases with a long-range, intercontinental, ballistic missile attack to minimise our usefulness in the conflict.
“If China seriously wants to go after Taiwan in a military sense, the only way they can really contemplate quick success is to pre-emptively attack those assets that might be a threat to them. That means Pine Gap goes,” he says, referring to the top secret US-Australian base in the Northern Territory that the US uses to detect nuclear missile launches.
“We might not be able to change China’s objectives, but we can alter its cost calculations and behaviour and constrain its options,” Lavina Lee, a foreign policy expert at Macquarie University, argued in “What we do matters.”
The decision by Australia to purchase two nuclear submarines from the United States is significant for several reasons. First, it marks a significant shift in Australia's defence strategy, as it moves away from its reliance on conventional submarines and towards a more advanced and technologically sophisticated platform. This move is seen as necessary to counter the growing military capabilities of China, which has been investing heavily in its naval capabilities in recent years.
Despite these concerns, the AUKUS treaty and Australia's decision to purchase nuclear submarines from the United States are seen as a significant step forward in regional security and cooperation. The treaty represents a commitment by the US and the UK to support Australia in the face of growing threats from China, and it is seen as a sign of the deepening strategic partnership between the three countries.
However, the move has also drawn criticism from other quarters, particularly from China. Chinese officials have accused the US and its allies of undermining regional stability and escalating tensions in the region. They have also expressed concerns about the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Indo-Pacific region.
The decision by Australia to purchase two nuclear submarines from the United States under the AUKUS treaty has significant geopolitical implications for the region and broader implications for global security. While it is seen as a significant step forward in regional security and cooperation, it also raises questions about global non-proliferation efforts and the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Indo-Pacific region. As tensions between China and the United States continue to escalate, the AUKUS treaty and its implications will continue to be closely watched by policymakers and analysts around the world.
