Only hours after the joint announcement by President Joe Biden and Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak in San Diego, of the multi-decade collaboration of Virginia- and SSN-AUKUS-class submarines, a scathy reaction by prominent political figures has halted the over eager Labor government “Submarine PR machine”.
Not surprisingly, the Former PM Paul Keating, is the one of very few proven political figures of our time that can bring a government marketing parade to a halt. On the 15th of February, only two days after the historical announcement by the Prime MInister Abanese in SanDiego, Presented his case and the former PM forced the Press Club to take note of the different perspectives and concerns over the defence alliance, including the strategic impact with China.
Mr Keating criticised the AUKUS pact and discussed relations with China as the “worst international decision by an Australian Labor government”.
Only a handful of Australians can call out its own Party to question the logic and the long term strategic and consequential impact with our Asian trade partners.
It has forced the press and commentators to endure the legitimate effort to critically examine the decisions by the current government to commit decades of defence commitment by Australia with the United States and United Kingdom.
The former prime minister may have brought up critical issues with the AUKUS 'forever deal' with the US and UK, let's not expect a patriotic media to play along.
But he’s right that the unipolar world of US hegemony is over and we have to live with China’s growing influence in the world, and especially in Asia, whether we like it or not, and however many submarines we end up with. Carrying on as if only the US can have spheres of influence or a powerful military paves the way for a disastrous confrontation.
The US made up around 40 per cent of global GDP in the 1960s, at the height of its relative power, around double the level today, a share that is expected to continue to slowly decline.
In this context it will become harder – and indeed inadvisable – for Washington to seek to arbitrate disputes of its choice anywhere in the world, be it in Ukraine, the Middle East, or in the South China Sea. That would be a recipe for wars even more disastrous than those instigated over the past 20 years, where Washington tried and largely failed to impose its will on other, much weaker nations in the Middle East and Africa.
As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and senior Cabinet ministers push back on Paul Keating's strident criticism of the AUKUS pact, The process of Federal Government lobbying to state government and local MP to engage in the construction of the submarine in Port Adelaide workshop and nuclear waste depot has begun.
The Prime Minister, Mr Biden and Mr Sunak said in a joint statement that the AUKUS pathway would elevate the industrial capacity of all three countries and expand their presence in the Indo-Pacific.
It is expected the AUKUS rollout will support 4000 to 5000 direct jobs in Adelaide, plus another 4000 workers to design and build the infrastructure. Another 3000 direct jobs are expected to be created in Western Australia.
There are concerns that a naval buildup from Australia, supported by the United States and the United Kingdom, may not have any significant strategic significance for longer-term stability and prosperity amongst ASEAN countries, Australia, and China. Some argue that Australia should instead focus on developing stronger economic ties with China and other trading partners in the region.
However, others argue that a closer alliance with the United States and its allies is necessary to ensure Australia's security in the face of an increasingly assertive China. They argue that a stronger military presence in the region could help to deter Chinese aggression and ensure regional stability.
No doubt, the AUKUS defence pact has generated a tsunami of debates about Australia's relationship with China and its place in the region. While some argue that a closer alignment with the United States and its allies is necessary to ensure regional security, others argue that Australia needs to prioritise its economic relationships with China and other trading partners in the region. The debate highlights the complex geopolitical challenges facing Australia and the need for careful consideration of the country's foreign policy priorities.
To take us through this storm of judgement, Australians need compelling and stable communications that accounts for the course the government has elected to take. With the intention to inform and update industry and communities. This narrative must be honest—any untruths or convenient exaggerations will most certainly be exposed by the passage of time.
The AUKUS Nuclear-Powered Submarine Pathway: A QUICK GUIDE
WHAT IS AUKUS
The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pathway will deliver Australia a world-class capability that will see our nation become one of only 7 countries that operate nuclear-powered submarines.
The pathway delivers significant long-term strategic benefits for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. It strengthens the combined industrial capacity of the 3 partners, with increased cooperation making trilateral supply chains more robust and resilient.
THE COST: The AUKUS program is forecast to cost $268bn to $368bn between now and the mid 2050s, or about 0.15 per cent of Australia’s GDP. The government will spend $9bn over the next four years, offset by cuts in Defence. Of this figure, about $2.5bn will be invested in US shipyards to boost production of the Virginia-class submarines and $500m in Britain. The remaining $5bn will be invested domestically, including $2bn for new South Australian infrastructure.
INDUSTRY: The trilateral nature of AUKUS will give rise to a unified supply chain, with all three partner countries contributing to each other’s industrial bases. This could involve SA companies creating parts to be fitted on Virginia-class submarines in the US. There will also be opportunities to sustain subs that will be rotating through HMAS Stirling – and the three US subs Australia will buy in the 2030s.
FORWARD ROTATIONS: The US plans to increase nuclear submarine port visits to Australia starting this year. This will allow Australian sailors to join US crews for training. The British navy will begin increasing visits in 2026. As early as 2027, Britain and the US will establish a rotational presence of one Astute-class submarine and four Virginia-class submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth. It will be dubbed “Submarine Rotational Force - West”, boosting the presence of nuclear-powered submarines in the region while Australia works on acquiring its own nuclear fleet.
JOBS AND SKILLS: AUKUS will create 20,000 direct jobs across Australia over the next 30 years, including up to 8500 direct jobs in the industrial workforce alone. More than half – up to 5500 – of these will be in SA when construction at the Osborne shipyard reaches its peak in 20 to 30 years. Australia is facing a worrying skills shortage, particularly in nuclear expertise. Measures to address this shortfall include sending hundreds of civilian workers to learn in US and British shipyards. Navy officers will study nuclear courses in the two countries and be embedded on US and British nuclear submarines. Extra places in STEM courses will be added to SA universities and a shipbuilding academy will be created at Osborne.
